December 22, 2006

Troy is the worst bowl team ever

New Orleans Bowl
Troy Trojans (7-5) vs. Rice Owls (7-5)
8pm on the Four-Letter network

THE STATS
Let me dig right in to some numbers on these boys of Troy - they won the Sun Belt in a last minute rally over (what I deem) a superior Middle Tennessee State team.
  • Phil Steele looked at a unique strength of schedule - win-loss record of opponents minus the team's actual games played. Troy was 118th in the nation.
  • 4.8 yards per play on offense, 93rd in the nation.
  • -9 turnover margin, 104th in the nation (20 take/29 give)Sammy the Owl
Yeech! But...

Yards per play: Rice 5.3 (66th), Troy 4.8 (93rd)
Yards per point: Rice 12.42 (18th), Troy 14.87 (72nd)

Yards per play allowed: Rice 6.7 (115th), Troy 5.1 (49th)
Yards per point allowed: Rice 12.8 (94th), Troy 15.2 (59th)
3rd down conversion allowed: Rice 57/144 39.6% (74th), Troy 61/168 36.9% (55th)

Turnover Margin: Rice +11 27/16 (8th), Troy -9 20/29 (104th)

No one is setting the world on fire, but it looks like the true battle is when Rice has the ball since that is where both teams have their strengths. Looks like Rice should easily win the turnover battle and I give them the slight edge.

THE PLAYERS
Both teams gave birth to their own version of the Texas Tech/Air Raid offense this year. Rice snuck up on everyone this year, going 9-3 against the spread (ATS) under first year coach Todd Graham and OC Major Applewhite (yep, that Major that sat behind Chris Simms in Texas). WR Jarrett Dillard led the nation with 20 TD catches and was a unanimous Fantasy College Blitz All-American.

Troy had a donut season - big hole in the middle. After playing GT and Florida State tough early, they were beat like they stole something at Nebraska and UAB.

The risk to my viewpoint on the Rice win lies in momentum - Troy won six of the last seven, three of those wins on the road. QB Omar Haugabook and the spread offense really took off towards the end as well.

THE PICK
Rice -4, over 54. Neither defense is stellar, and with both offenses getting in gear in November plus the additional practice time the over is the play (avg 44 ppg this year in all of NCAA).

3 comments:

Anonymous said...

I think you could shove that assessement you know where. Troy spanked the hell out of Rice last night.

jagd1305 said...

OOOPSSS....looks like your silly yet simple stupidity is showing. Perhaps there's still a marvelous opportunity awaiting you in the fast food industry doing something beneficial for all humanity. By the way, I'll have your order of crow to go, please.

Vince said...

wow, some real anger from the Troy fans...I am taken aback by the level of disdain you show.