December 02, 2006

Risk Capital - Championship Week

Very few games, but quality trumps quantity. Oddly, my favorite pick is probably the least impactful to the BCS...

Navy -19 over Army, MAX BET

Neutral field, Navy's top-rated tunning offense (with a 6:1 run:pass ratio) against the 116th ranked Black Knights defense - and Army looked positively Pop Warner against the Air Force triple option. In seven of eleven games Army allowed over 190 rushing yards in a contest. Army has no offense either. There are some very poor and tasteless allegories I will ignore here - take the Midshipmen side with confidence.

Rutgers +10 at West Virginia, 3 units

So both teams are off bad losses - the talk of the Mountaineers being the only ones "with something to prove" is not only myopic it shows irresponsible journalism. You think that the Scarlet Knights have nothing to prove? They have been doing it all year long and had one hiccup in the visit to Cincinnatti. Add to this WVU QB Pat White continues to suffer from a high ankle sprain and with out him the offense is in the hands of the one-armed Steve Slaton. Rutgers may not win, but the ten points is a gift.

If you aren't feeling so froggy, tease both games up six points.

Arkansas +3 versus Florida, 3 units

The betting world must put no faith in the Arkansas passing game - why else would the Hogs be getting 3? I like to think of the Hog offense as a high-school single wing with lots of misdirections mixed in with long passing plays. Did you know that Arkansas is 8th in the nation with 14.00 yards per pass attempt? I expect that the Gators will occassionally put NINE players "in the box", effectively limiting Darren McFadden and Feix Jones but allowing at least two big plays to Marcus Monk or "Run DMc" in the passing game.

It must be pointed out the reason why I am only suggesting three units - the Gators have...
  • won ugly all year against what many think to be better teams (LSU, Tennesse, Georgia).
  • stand at 11-1, but are only 3-8 against the spread, and
  • won the last five in the series
In what should be a close game, take the points on a running team that plays strong D on a neutral field - take a shot with the Hogs.

I like Hawai'i -8 at home versus Oregon State (Colt Brennan needs four TDs to break Klingler's record), Oklahoma -3.5 over Nebraska in the snow and Georgia Tech -1 over Wake Forest as well, just not as much as these three above.

I am taking a small respite from the blog for the weekend - first wedding anniversary, if things go well should be sleeping in most of Sunday, na'mean?

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