September 24, 2006

The OCF Top 13 Debut

Welcome to my highly subjective but open minded look at who will be the top teams in college football after the regular season.

Pay special attention to the wording in italics - while other polls are snapshots in real-time, I aim to absorb all that has happened and incorporate that into projecting to the end of the regular season. I expect the OCF poll to be quite volatile since "second order" events (results of previous and future opponents, margin of victory) should have a large impact on slotting teams from week to week.

See my preseason rankings and rationale here. I do some quantitative stuff in the background, but I freely admit that there is a lot of art and guts to this. Like get the f*** outta here, Seminoles and Hurricanes!
  1. Auburn 4-0
  2. Ohio State 4-0
  3. Southern Cal 3-0
  4. Texas 3-1
  5. Michigan 4-0
  6. Oregon 3-0
  7. Notre Dame 3-1
  8. Louisville 4-0
  9. West Virginia 4-0
  10. LSU 3-1
  11. Virginia Tech 4-0
  12. Oklahoma 3-1 (I have my response ready for their president...)
  13. TCU 3-0
Off radar - Penn State, Georgia, California, Boise State, Florida

Auburn had that scare versus LSU, but LSU is one of the top teams in the nation - neither allows more than a TD a game! And trust me, the Oregon-Oklahoma fiasco had nothing to do with me downgrading the Sooners - in fact, despite their underachieving defense they got upgraded based on Washington's upset win over UCLA and Colorado showing some signs of life. I do not expect the Gators (BS Journalism, 1994) to get thru that vicious schedule unscathed, hence their lack of inclusion despite nice early results - and it hurts to say that almost as much as it hurt to put a benjamin on their winning under 9.5 games.

If I had to tier the rankings, I would say that Auburn and the Buckeyes are the clear leaders, while USC, Texas and Michigan would be the next best group. Teams with the best chance of moving higher are Louisville, West Virginia and TCU (toughest games are next two weeks with BYU and Utah) if the Horned Frogs keep their undefeated seasons alive.

So looking way ahead, the biggest games to me this season will be in November;
  • Michigan at Ohio State on 18th,
  • Louisville at West Virginia on a Thursday 2nd and
  • USC's masochistic home schedule (Oregon, Cal, Notre Dame)
Talk to me - what did I miss? What do you like?

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

It's Ok to knock OSU out of the top spot this week.
They won't be there next week anyway after the Hawkeyes
not only ruin their chances at a National Championship, but have
them gripping at a run for the Big 10 this year.
The Hawkeyes suffocating defense will make Troy Smith go "Chris Rix"
this Sat Night at Kinnick Stadium.