September 07, 2006

Risk Capital, Week 2

Last week: 2-3

Starting off in the hole, so I will stop digging and play smarter. With the able insight of PH as in Phat (an infrequent commenter), I whittled down the games you should play from 20 to about four. Again, do not risk more than 10% of your capital (whether real cash or the type) on any one bet.

OKLAHOMA -16.5 over Washington, 4 unit max bet
Huskies struggled with the San Jose State pass offense last week, how do you think they will handle the Adrian Peterson show? Plus, Oklahoma should be value this week after a poor showing versus UAB (a win nontheless) with a -3 TO ratio. Nice battle of athletic college QBs (and probable NFL Europe WRs) Paul Thompson and Isaiah Stanback. Washington not good on grass, OU has to speed up the tempo with Oregon on deck.

CALIFORNIA -8.5 over Minnesota, 2 units
Another Home fave looking for revenge. Do not think that the Gophers have upset potential - if nt for two goal-line stands versus Kent St. and a bunch of turnovers, the game would have been much closer. Cal has to be angry, and Marshawn Lynch will do better finding paydirt than Eugene Jarvis did. The disparate results of Week One and the QB questions at Cal (pick Ayoob already!) have tilted this line out of balance to Minny, so you should strike the other side. The last point is that Minnesota is much less equipped to attack the Cal secondary minus CB Tim Mixon (ACL) than was Tennessee. Phil Steele 4* pick (get his newsletter at Northcoast Sports)

UNLV +14 at IOWA STATE, 2 units
Iowa State isn't that bad on defense, they only allowed 23 in regulation. Nonetheless, Cyclones remind me of Northwestern the past couple years how they need to outscore everyone. Their pass D is vulnerable, and the nation may get a healthy intro to Rebel QB Rocky Hinds who was a top USC recruit who wanted to play immediately after knee injuries. Not as big an upset as the Colorado loss last week, but this could be a straight-up upset.

FRESNO ST +3.5 over Oregon, 3 units
Fresno Coach Pat Hill dreams for games like this. He gets Oregon off an easy win over Stanford, may look ahead at Oklahoma, and they may be without Jon Stewart in the backfield. Fresno played well last week in the opener over Nevada (an ATS loss though), but Fresno is 20-3 ATS vs BCS schools with ten wins - POW!

Over/unders, 3 units
Under 39.5 Georgia at South Carolina (PH Pick)
Over 55 Louisville vs. Temple (Cardinals may do that themselves!)

Other games on the radar:
Arkansas big over Utah State, Akron +10.5 at NC State

and my obligatory picks for the HUGE GAMES for the weekend? Texas over Ohio State in a squeaker, and Notre Dame wins in another low scoring game.

PH also just said to tease with six points on Cal and OU, and go crazy with a parley of moneyline bets on OU, Arkansas, Cal, and L'Ville.

What games do you like?

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