September 15, 2006

Risk Capital, Week 3

Last week, 3-2. Overall 5-5

As you might expect, the big games are the "liquid" or "mature" markets, so little information advantage there. I hope to give you some strong insight into the lower tier games where you can grab some coin. I have a strong lean this week to teams rebounding after poor games protecting the football.

Texas -32 over Rice, max bet 4 units
Rice is not as good as the scores would suggest last week - they were plus 3 in turnovers and still lost to UCLA. And trust me that Texas is value here - past matchups in this intrastate rivalry had 45+ point spreads. Colt McCoy should shine as he tries to rebuild his new reputation after the beatdown in Austin. Get down, Longhorns!

Oklahoma State -30 hosting Florida Atlantic, max bet 4 units
FAU is horrible, and the Cowboys are nothing if not a physical team. The Cowboy defense may be one of the sleeper units in the country, which give emerging QB Bobby Reid the breathing room to operate the run based spread offense. Mike Hamilton could put up 150 and 2 TDs. This one could get ugly quickly, but Reid will get lots of reps as the staff wants to use games like this as live practice. Very unusual for me to play two big faves like this, but there is good line valuation here.

Missouri -14 over New Mexico, 3 units
Lobos had a costly win last week as they lost their starting QB on the first play of the game. Trouble here is their narrow win over Air Mumme and New Mexico State was the by-product of plus 5 turnovers - that makes the final quite misleading. Missouri may have the best QB you haven't heard of in Chase Daniel, and the Missouri D has been solid. This is Daniel's first start on the road after taking over for all-world Brad Smith, but Missouri is shaping up like a real sleeper to follow in the Big 12. The air will be thin, but filled with Missouri TDs.

Central Michigan +1 hosting Akron, 2 units
If you can pare this up with the UCF pick as a teaser (see below), you can feel a lot better about the home dogs. CMU has been impressive in a narrow loss to BC and a bigger loss to Michigan, and Zips are flying high off the NC State win. Chippewas were minus three turnovers to the Wolverines last week, setting this one up for a big value on the home team. Akron's third straight n the raod concerns me as well.

UCF +1 hosting South Florida, 2 units or less
Knights got their ass kicked in Gainesville last week, despite +4 TO still lost 42-0. South Florida looks to be hitting stride with new QB Grothe. Phil Steele is in direct opposition to my selection, in fact has USF as a 4* if they are dogs. Like I said, I will combine UCF and CMU on a two team tease with 6 points to sleep more comfortably.

Other quick shots - Louisville over Miami, USC over Nebraska, Iowa over Iowas State, and Florida over Tennessee.

Crazy Under the Radar special - Florida Int'l in an upset of Bowling Green (true risk capital only, take points and the moneyline if you can get it.) FIU covered easily in their last four with former Miami Dolphin and Head Coach Don Strock in charge.

PH as in Phat says tease Oklahoma and Michigan, and he loves Auburn over LSU. He shares with me little detail, but I trust him like a sage.

Whatcha got?

1 comment:

Vince said...

Another 3-2 week - Missouri allows a late TD for the backdoor loss, and UCF RB Kevin Smith is a VERY late scratch due to missing curfew.

If you teased up the UCF game with the CMU game, you got a push since UCF lost by seven - for simplicity sake, I am posting 3-2 as my result rather than 2-1-1.

Notice how the money management came into play - the max bets came through, the lesser ones did not. 15 units of risk paid out 16 (with tease) and 20 without - that is a win!

Quick Shots were perfect, and the "Radar" came through as well as FIU stuck with BGSU