October 27, 2006

Risk Capital, Week 9

I'd rather not discuss my yearly record, but like a mutual fund manager who has had a couple bad quarters I feel confident of my system and will plunge ahead. My system has identified and optimized some great plays, I have simply been way too exuberant in applying maxbets.

So i will ignore my introspection and here is my MAXBET special...

Washington straight up hosting Arizona State, 5 units

My favorite system is looking for teams that were involved in +/- 3 turnovers in the previous game. My assumption is that good teams are then undervalued and will "revert to the mean" to play much better the following week if they were on the wrong side, and be overvalued and play worse if they were on the right side.

Washington committed five more TO's than Cal last week and still got to OT in the loss, and ASU was +3 TO in a blowout over Stanford. Advantage Washington.

Sun Devils have played horribly throughout the year (you may have heard about the QB controversy), and Washington has played much better than expected in Ty's second year. Washington has the homefield and weather advantage as well.

Put on the big pants and go maxbet on the Huskies.

Michigan -35 over Northwestern,
Missouri -2 hosting Oklahoma, 3 units.

This has been a nice money maker for me since Week Three when I got my head out of my ass and realized that the Wolverines were as good as any team in the nation (kinda saw that coming) , and the the Missouri defense is for real.
RISKS: Missouri does not have a great record as a home fave in Big 12 play, and also have the Tiger career sack leader DE Brian Smith out for the year with a broken hip. Michigan again is a double-digit fave and that is a big number to cover...so double team the line and push it up 6.5 to 8 points.

I normally like to play Air Force against the spread, but BYU is on fire and HC Mendenhall has seen the triple option for years. Put that on in your back pocket.

1 comment:

Vince said...

About those picks...OT was a killer for Huskies as the +1.5 could only help if both teams scored TD and Washington missed XP.

Also, perhaps the world has caught up with the valuation of Missouri and Michigan.