November 23, 2006

Risk Capital, Week 13

First thing - throw away the idea that in Rivalry Week that "records do not matter". While certainly you can expect teams like Florida State and Texas A&M to get up and play better for their traditional rivals, across the nation this platitude will get worn out quicker than a pair of Air Jordans on a three-year old.

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Middle Tennessee -9 vs. Troy, MAX BET 5 UNITS
I know, you want to hear about the big games...but I thought this gaming thing was about finding lay-ups to bet? Like investing, it is all about finding inefficiencies and expoliting them and there is no less followed D1 conference than the Sun Belt. The only way anyone from this bastard conference gets to a bowl is to win the conference, and MTSU has a defense that would let it compete in the WAC and maybe the ACC this year. Granted, Troy almost beat FSU and Georgia Tech early in the season, but turnovers have been killing them.

Hawaii -18 vs. Purdue, 3 units
Purdue's defense is worse than Martha Stewart's and they just got off a 14-hour plane ride during the Turkey Day holiday. Game tips off at 11pm EST - see where I am going here? Over 75 is a threat, if you can actually find a book that publishes it - I haven't been able to for a month since Colt Brennan began his obscene attack on the passing record book. As Daniel Freer at Fantasy College Blitz reminded me yesterday, Jerry Glanville coaches the defense and they have played as well as any in the WAC. The main reason for 3 units rather than five? Will the bad Purdue defense translate better in the WAC.

Rutgers -14 over Syracuse, 3 units
Angry team in need of a tune up comes home to play a woeful opponent - sounds like a great setup for the Scarlet Knights. Rutgers still is a top 5 defense and the only Orangeman who can hurt it is WR Delone Carter. I think Rutgers covers this with ease.

NC State -3 over East Carolina, ? units
Terry Bowden, between spitting and stuttering on his Orlando Radio Show on ESPN 1080, is 6-3 this year with his lock of the week - this week, this is his pick. He my be unable to have an intelligent conversation outside the realm of football, but he knows his locks.

Triple Option Special: None
Navy is idle, Air Force travels to UNLV and is giving 10.5...too rich for my blood. Plus, Phil Steele says that the UNLV defensive coach was at USAFA for five years prior to his gig in the desert - pass on this one.

Rivalry picks - hard to bet given the pageantry
  • Florida squeaks by FSU (did you know Urban Meyer has yet to win on the road while at UF, plus has yet to cover this year away from the Swamp?)
  • Texas over Texas A&M
  • Arkansas over LSU on Friday (making LSU the best three-loss team ever!)
  • Arizona by 7 over Arizona State
  • Oregon vs. Oregon State - pick'em!
  • Oklahoma by 10 over Oklahoma State
  • BYU by 13 over Utah
  • Miss St over Miss in one of the most boring games of the week.
  • UNC over Duke in THE most boring game of the weekend
Hope you all enjoyed your turkey - stay awake today for the big Arkansas at LSU game!

1 comment:

Vince said...

Sorry about your losses - Vince Mullins

Did you catch the ending of the MTSU meltdown?

Ripped my heart out! That literally was my lock of the month! Stay tuned.